Monday, September 15, 2008

Waiting for the next shoe to drop? Lets make a like a tomato and catchup (did you know that the difference btw catchup and ketchup is the addition of tabasco, and less thickness). So the best scenerio is not really panning out.

Here's the worst case. Lehman! WOW! a firm with 158 yr history, a name that has stoked the fires and has forged this country's financial markets. A firm that survive the great depression, black monday, and the 1998 debt russian default/fall of long term is taking out by subprime. Subprime - my experience with sub-prime starts with bunch of young smooth talking sales people calling an under-eduatced demographic and pushing complicated loans (basically scams), wall street bankers pooling these loans into even more complicate bonds and selling them to pension funds, insurance companies (can anyone say AIG, from $70-$4 in 12 months flat), etc... Then credit agencies (moody, Standard & Poor), whom are suppose to be beholden to the interests of bond buyers, turn a blind eye. After all Wall Street firms are the credit agencies biggest customers. However if I have to assign blame I assign blame to the grand Pooba himself, Alan Greenspan (no he did not!). How can blame such a nice grand-fatherly man like Alan? - because he's an enabler. Back in 2002ish he reduced the discount rate to 1 percent for over a yr to avoid recession. Basically the economy (post9/11) was getting a cold, maybe the flu, and Alan desided to skip vitman C and go right for the defibulator pads and a adrenaline shot straight to the economy (ala pulp fiction). This year of cash on fire sale, got money moving and stoked the economy, but in what way??? - Was this growth healthy? In terms of sub-prime, No! In the most subversive way subprime was capitalize at it's most dangerous. In the end sub-prime funneled money from the poor, uneducated, and lazy to the corporate individuals. "Lets just refinance your house and save you a few hundred dollars a month." Never mind the balloon payment or the tricky language... in the end an old mortgage is paid off by the bank in order to finance a new mortgage (refiance). That old mortgage is linked to a bond in some pensions/mutual funds/hedge funds ("buyside") portfolio... That bond is paid off, leaving the pension fund with money and Wall street with a mortgage to create a new bond and sell to the cash laden pension fund, not to mention the deed and the house keys to some poor smucks half a double in about 9 months. Then the house goes to auction right about the time your buddy's from ameriq**st (subprime scumbags) and UBS want to a start a small real-estate investment group to pool money and get property on the cheap. Please show where any economic value to society in general was added...

Sorry I got 0ff track, so the firm formerly known as Lehman was holding 600 billion in debt (alot of it subprime bonds) while only having 20 billion in assets to back it up... That is a 30 to 1 leverage, this means if they even just missed price the bonds by 3% they are screwed. To risky, to greedy, poor oversight... it's just sad.

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